South Africa’s Inflation Outlook and Policy Rate: Five Key Points from the SARB

The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review, published on 6 October 2026, sets out an inflation outlook and summarises policy-rate changes during its April–October review period. The review projects headline inflation will stay above 5% through the second quarter of 2027, then ease back to target from the fourth quarter.

Post 1: Inflation is projected to stay above 5% through Q2 2027

The SARB’s forecast keeps headline inflation above 5% through the second quarter of 2027. It projects inflation will ease back to target from the fourth quarter of that year.

Post 2: The review reports a 50-basis-point rate increase

The review says the Monetary Policy Committee raised the policy rate by a cumulative 50 basis points during the April–October 2026 review period.

Post 3: The policy rate reached 7.25%

The October review reports that the policy rate reached 7.25%. The SARB’s September MPC statement also gives the rate as 7.25%, corroborating that level.

Post 4: The September statement confirms the rate level, not the forecast

The September MPC statement supports the 7.25% rate figure. It does not independently confirm the October review’s cumulative 50-basis-point increase or its inflation forecast.

Post 5: What the review establishes

The review provides an inflation forecast and an account of the policy-rate change. The supplied evidence does not establish specific effects on businesses, industries or consumers, so those impacts cannot be inferred from these figures alone.